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each new attack. Those who seek to mitigate terrorist threats understand that terror does not occur in a vacuum. They explore how historical events,
geopolitics, and previous terrorist attacks can influence the nature of terrorism in the world today. Counterterrorism professionals must have the ability to think
critically and analytically about current and emerging threats and issues in order to consider all possible outcomes. One way this is achieved is by conducting an
alternative futures analysis (AFA). Typically an AFA is conducted by counterterrorism analysts prior to the occurrence of a terrorist event so that alternative
trajectories of a known threat can be identified. Rather than predicting one outcome, an AFA attempts to use the complexity and uncertainty of a situation to
describe multiple possible outcomes (futures) that intelligence professionals and policymakers should consider.
For your final project, you will conduct a modified version of an alternative futures analysis. You will select a modern terrorist attack as a foundation for
exploring alternative futures and critically analyzing the government’s response to the event. In your analysis, you will determine the historical events that set
the stage for the attack, including the events that led to the formation of the terrorist organization involved. You will then consider the local and global impacts
of the government’s response to the attack, along with the response’s intended goals and unintended consequences. You will describe a possible alternative
response to the attack and explain how that alternative response might have made the terrorist organization more or less of a threat to the world today. Finally,
you will evaluate the present counterterrorism approach of the country in which the attack occurred and explain how an alternative approach could potentially
impact future terrorist actions.
Before beginning this assessment, you must choose one of the following modern terrorist attacks to use as the basis of your analysis.
 Bali nightclub bombing: Indonesia, October 12, 2002
 Madrid train bombing: Spain, March 11, 2004
 London bombing: England, July 7, 2005
 Mumbai attack: India, November 26, 2008
The project is divided into three milestones, which will be submitted at various points throughout the course to scaffold learning and ensure quality final
submissions. These milestones will be submitted in Modules Two, Four, and Six. The final product will be submitted in Module Nine.
In this assignment, you will demonstrate your mastery of the following course outcomes:
 Determine key historical factors that influenced the evolution of modern global terrorism
 Analyze a terrorist event for determining the extent of its impact on the field of global terrorism
 Analyze responses to terrorism for determining their expected outcomes and unintended consequences on local and global communities
 Evaluate past and present counterterrorism approaches for informing future responses to terrorism

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