Effects of Stock Value on GDP

Chapter 15& 16 TERM PROJECT REPORT STUDENT PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES EOR CHAPTER 13 write a Term Project Report that is neither too terse nor too verbose correctly identify which independent variables are statistically significant Briefly discuss the importance of the model R2 Be able to explain the autocorrelation status of a regression model Evaluate whether Multicollinearity exist and if it does correct it TERM PROJECT REPORT DETAILS Term Project Report Change the cover sheet from your Term Project proposal to Put a Table of contents between the cover sheet and the introduction to your study. The text of your Proposal is the introduction to your report. The analysis section comes after the introduction. It is not necessary that your modeLbe statistically significant. Your grade will depend upon your ability to analyze the outcome of your model. Your I report must be sufficiently detailed to explain your analysis to someone who knows nothing about the project. For example, if you analyzed the logarithm of a variable, why did you do so? You may assume that your reader understands basic regression and other basic statistical tests but you must elaborate on anything beyond the basics. In other words, do not describe the regression process and how R2 t-statistics, etc. are defined. Report the statistics and comment on their importance. Your report should be double spaced. before the Excel SPSS A references page will be placed after the report text and or printouts Appendix. A report that does not include the appropriate computer printouts will be rejected and the late penalty will begin. STRUCTURE OF REPORT. There is no length requirement for the report. Number pages starting with the first page of text, not counting the cover page or Table of Contents page. Do not use acetate binders. Staple the paper in the upper left corner. 1. The title page will include the words "TERM PROJECT REPORT of paper, your name and the course number. 2. Introduction and essential background information for the model. Start with the purpose of the project, followed with the model statement. Briefly discuss why the independent variables chosen were selected and what you expected to accomplish The paper will require two regressions. The first regression is the one described in the proposal and the second one wil change the independent variable(s) in a manner intended to improve the regression results. The easiest way to accomplish this is to log all the regression variables. Alternatively, a new variable can be substituted for an existing one or a variable can be lagged. The lagging of a variable must be justified. Merely dropping an existing variable without replacing it is not acceptable. Do not include more than two regression printouts and summary tables in the report. Usually the paper will be far easier to read if you analyze the proposed model first and then analyze the "improved" model. At times the "improved model may not be as good as the original one but that is not a problem. When the two models are analyzed side-by-side the write up is often very hard to follow. 4. Discuss the significance of the relevant statistics (t, Rz, etc) and note briefly how the outcome differs from your expectations. Use good judgment here. You do not have to discuss in great-glorious detail every deviation from the expectations of the proposal. This is a business report. So, mention deviations from expectations that are important to your research. Again, if the outcome differs from your expectations, this will in no way diminish your grade. However, you will need to use the VIF statistic to determine if multicollinearity exists and, if it does, correct for it. The only symbols that will be needed for the Term Project papers are the R2 and a. R2 may be written as R-Squared but not as Ror R2. The easiest way to get the superscript 2 on the R2 is to type R2, highlight the 2, and on the Home tab select the x2 icon. Obtain "o" at the Insert tab by selecting the "o" symbol (far right in Symbols section) and scroll to select "a 5. A table per model (two per report) is required to summarize key statistics discussed in this section. In a business report SPSS/Excel printouts are not put in the body of the report. Rather, they are put in an appendix at the end of the document. A summary table with the essential statistics for understanding each of the regression results is put in the body of the report as close as possible to the written discussion. The statistics summarized by the table must include the name of the Dependent Variable,the sample size, and the R2. This is not R2 or R or r. The easiest way to write Rz is to type R2" then highlight (select the 2 and select the icon. Additionally, the table must include the name of each independent variable along with its coefficient, t statistic. and the significance of its tstatistic (sig or P-value). Finally, ONLY ifthe regression is on time series data, the Durbin Watson statistic is listed. The last row for the Durbin- Watson statistic should only be included with the time series model. For the cross- section data model, do not include this row and do not say"DW: not applicable." A sample table for a time series regression appears below. To construct the table in Microsoft Word see Appendix C of this Chapter. You do not have to include the VIF statistic in the table. If multicollinearity exists, mention this, and drop the appropriate variable. 5. Summary and conclusion to report, The conclusion for each report will include brief suggestions of ways the model could be improved. 6. References page in APA format from your Proposal will include both your library research in support of your choice of variables (Sez-Who References) and your actual data sources but will not include reference(s) to statistical procedures as outlined in the Guide. You may add or delete references from your Proposal version if appropriate. 7. Appendix for Excel or SPSS output printouts. The first page of the appendix is titled Appendix and tabbed for easy reference. This can be accomplished by neatly taping an appropriately labeled tab to the page. DO NOT TAB OTHER SECTIONS OF YOUR PAPER. The two SPSS or Excel regression printouts follow this page, These printouts can be formatted to appear on one page be deleting unnecessary rows and blank rows. The residual rows are not used for example and there are extra blank rows between the regression output sections. In Excel delete rows at the Home tab and select the "delete icon in the cells section. On SPss unnecessary sections can also be deleted. See Chapter 9. Do not turn in copies of data that were previously turned in with the proposal. However, do turn in copies of data for variables selected since the proposal. Email to the instructor the o and data files (SPss or Excel for your Term Project. REPORT GRADING is based on the following: - Your ability to co interpret the computer printouts. lf the author of the paper consistently unable to determine which variables are signifcant the maximum grade for it will be 60% regardless of how well the rest of the paper is put together. Understanding the importance of R2, Durbin-Watson and VIF statistics must be evident. The importance of the VIF Multicolinearity diagnostic must be mentioned. In short, the overall quality of thought behind analysis exhibited in the paper is the major determinant to your grade. This includes how well you document the results and attempt to explain what happened. How readable the paper is. Is it clear what you did and how you did it? Could someone who knew nothing about your project and your analysis of it understand what you did after reading your report? Do you define your variable names? Do you use standard notation and names for tests and procedures? A common error is to denote R-squared as "R" or "R2 rather than "R2". R is the square root of R2 Does your report go on and on describing statistical procedures? This is neither necessary nor desirable in a business report. You will be tested on regression procedure separately from the Term Project. Correct spelling and English is required. Students are encouraged to use Microsoft Spell and Grammar check plus carefully proof read work they submit. It is perfectly acceptable to submit report to members of the faculty orfriends who are not in this class for suggestions on improving it. Attention to detail of organization as specified above (format, appendices, tabs, tables, page numbering, etc.) is expected. See Appendix A for a checklist that will be used to grade the Report. Appendix B provides a sample a sample Term Project Report. Appendix c describes in greater detail how to draw the toxt boxes required for this report and for the PowerPoint presentation SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 15 As you prepare your report, be sure to use the Written Report Grading Sheet which is Appendix A to this Chapter. A copy of this form is used to grade your report. Use the SAMPLE TERM PROJECT REPORT which is Appendix B to this Chapter. Be original but use this paper as a general guide to whata Report should look like. APPENDIx A To CHAPTER 15: written Report Grading Sheet. Name GRADE STATISTICS: No, incorrect, or inadequate, discussion of which variables are statistically significant. No, or inadequate discussion of R2. Time-Series Mode) No, or inadequate, autocorrelation discussion and Durbin-Watson. (Cross-Section Model Do not discuss Dw on cross-section model. You are regressing the identity: Drop one of these variables. Independent Variables and appear to measure the same thing You have apparent multicollinearity. You should have dropped one of these variables COURSE REQUIREMENTS A person who knew nothing about your project would not be able to understand it. The source of data not cited completely. Readers must be able to find the data you used. Number of observations not given in text. No purpose cited for the affect of one independent variable on the dependent variable. No explanation for why independent variables were chosen. No source cited. (Variable definition for not given (Use full definition based on data tables.) No effort to improve model (You must run model two ways in an effort to improve it.) Conclusion missing or inadequate BUSINESS REPORT General Format Paper not stapled in upper-left corner. No tables in text of paper to summarize modelResult v No table for second model Too verbose (wordy) for a business report. (State the facts but don't elaborate endlessly.) . Avoid wordy constructions Edit out "fluffy" or redundant sentences. Too Terse. (Paper has to be more than a collection of facts.) No Page Numbers in Text of Report. hould be numbered beginning the finst page of text. SPSS or Excel pri not in Appendix No title Page No Name No Title Unimaginative title vNo Course Number. No References (Bibliography)